How to manage uncertainty – Sam Conniff, Be More Pirate & Uncertainty Experts

[06:05] Defining “uncertainty”

• Some ways we can describe the word include…
  • Doubt
  • Skepticism
  • Suspicion
  • Mistrust
  • Lack of sureness
  • The Unknown
• Uncertainty is a feeling, unlike other terms such as…
  • Volatility
  • Complexity
  • Ambiguity
• What uncertainty is not:
  • Uncertainty ≠ Risk
    • Risk is dealing with known knowns. In other words, it’s an assessment of the likely outcome of known scenarios.
  • Uncertainty ≠ Reforecasting
    • We always need to adapt; but, again, reforecasting takes what we already know into account.
  • Uncertainty ≠ Resilience
    • Resilience is “getting good at getting hit”. But it relies too heavily on the individual, and not as much on the organization.
  • Bottom line: We need to get good at the uncertainty that is to come, rather than just get better at taking blows.

[10:10] Uncertainty Tolerance

• Uncertainty tolerance is a concept that was developed in the 1980s which asserts that uncertainty sits at the root of all anxiety disorders.
• The brain lights up exactly the same with fear as it does with anxiety.
  • One path leads to anxiety, the other to creativity.
• Those with low uncertainty tolerance have a higher recourse to…
  • Divisiveness
  • Self-doubt
  • Indecisiveness
  • Fatigue
  • Impressionability
  • Anxiety
• Those with high uncertainty tolerance have a higher recourse to…
  • Collaboration
  • Empathy
  • Decisiveness
  • Resilience
  • Open-mindedness
• You can increase or decrease your own uncertainty tolerance.

[25:23] Negativity Bias

• The brain has a predetermined bias towards negative assumptions.
  • Our negativity bias soared dramatically in 2020.
• Overcome negativity bias in the time between tides.
  • Commit to daily deep reflection to spot opportunity amidst uncertainty.
• Identify the times when you are most open-minded. These moments are when you can think and act best in uncertainty.

[49:49] Unearthing lessons in times of uncertainty

• There are opportunities for growth in times of uncertainty.
  • We can find these when we downregulate our emotional response to uncertain situations and raise our awareness in order to gather information.
• When we experience…
  • …fear, don’t strive for bravery, but for action.
  • …fog, don’t strive for clarity, but for creativity.
  • …stasis, don’t strive for progress, but for trust.
• What are you willing to do to walk slowly into the deep end of your life?

[1:08:05] Transforming failure

• 85% cited fear of failure as their greatest fear.
• 83% identified missed opportunity as the regret they most want to avoid.
• “Reflecting this clear parallel encourages cognitive restructuring.”

[1:08:51] Action vs Avoidance

• 78% identified an avoidant safety behaviour in response to uncertainty.
• 89% realised they gain nothing from it.
• 90% intended to embrace uncertainty.
• 99% reported taking action in spite of uncertainty felt better than avoidance.